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The Myanmar Civil War (2021 – Present) is an ongoing civil war which has been underway in Myanmar in Southeast Asia since 2021 after the military of Myanmar, the Tatmadaw, resumed almost complete control over the country. This led to an outbreak of revolts and insurgencies by numerous different groups around the country, a resumption of internal violence which has characterized life in Myanmar ever since independence from Britain in 1948. The 2021 resumption of complete power by the military signaled the death knell of efforts to adopt a more liberal democratic approach since the 1990s. The civil war is an asymmetrical conflict, one in which the government and military are fighting dozens of different campaigns with various groups such as the Northern Alliance, the 4K Coalition and the Bamar People’s Liberation Army in specific regions. Tens of thousands of people have been killed and millions have been internally displaced. However, the degree to which the refugee crisis has spilled over into the neighboring countries, Bangladesh, India, China, Laos and Thailand, has been limited owing to concerted efforts to prevent an exodus.[1]
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Myanmar Civil War chronology of eventsMyanmar Civil War chronology of events
Myanmar formed the eastern extremity of British rule in India, a buffer state known as Burma on the eastern side of the British Raj. It was invaded and occupied by the Japanese during the Second World War, creating a legacy of militarization and destabilization. Like India and Pakistan, Burma was granted independence by the British in 1948. It would only adopt the name Myanmar in 1989. The end of British rule was problematic in some ways. As with a large array of African countries, Burma was something of an artificial colonial construct. There are over a hundred different ethnic groups in the country like the Bamar, Shan, Karne, Rohingya, Kayah, Mon and Kachin. Similar to so many African countries in the 1960s, once British colonial rule came to an end, tensions between these different groups flared in independent Burma.[2]
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The country was troubled almost from the very point of independence. Tensions were brewing between different factions and ethnic groups within the country in the 1950s, leading to a military coup in 1962. At the heart of much of the conflict were these ethnic divisions as well as other socio-economic divisions. The coup of 1962 led to the establishment of a one-party state dominated by the military. A new constitution was promulgated in 1974 and there were some efforts to shift back to a functioning democracy.[3] These ultimately proved abortive and guerilla war and opposition movements proliferated. In 1988 the 8888 Uprising brought Aung San Suu Kyi to prominence and started a slow transition towards a more democratic political arrangement.[4]
In the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries it appeared that Myanmar was possibly shifting away from military rule and towards becoming a functional democracy. Aung San Suu Kyi became the State Counsellor of Myanmar in 2016, seemingly completing a process that had begun decades earlier. However, the commencement of the Rohingya genocide that same year made it clear that brutal military rule was still very much underway.[5] The façade of democratic legitimacy was effectively abandoned early in 2021 when a new coup was launched by the Myanmar military, the Tatmadaw, on the 1st of February. They declared the results of elections held in November 2020 invalid, deposed several senior officials from power and assumed direct control of the country.[6]
The Myanmar Civil War developed out of the coup of 2021 as existing opposition groups expanded their guerilla activities and new organizations emerged. This is a complex conflict. It is not being fought between the government and one opposition movement. Instead there are a number of large groups fighting the junta in specific parts of the country, entities like the Northern Alliance, the 4K Coalition and the Bamar People’s Liberation Army. Below them are dozens of smaller groups and militias. The fighting has been intense in large parts of Myanmar, displacing millions of people. It has gone through a number of stages. For a time it appeared as though the military were gaining the upper hand and would defeat several of their larger opponents before consolidating their control over much of the country again. However, reports in 2024 suggest that the size of the Myanmar military has been declining and that various rebel armies are making substantial progress. There is a possibility that the Myanmar Civil War could eventually end in the same way as the Syrian Civil War, with a coalition of different groups overthrowing the government after a long conflict that had largely disappeared from international headlines.[7]
Extent of migration caused by the Myanmar Civil WarExtent of migration caused by the Myanmar Civil War
The civil war has led to fighting all over Myanmar, as various groups have emerged in different parts of the country to oppose the Tatmadaw. As this has happened people have fled out of the way of the violence to other parts of Myanmar which are at least comparatively safer. The exact number of people who have been displaced cannot be accurately established and is constantly shifting. This being said, it is believed that around 3.3 million people have been displaced as of the end of 2024. Most have had to migrate internally within Myanmar, though tens of thousands of people have also crossed over the borders into Myanmar’s neighbors, Bangladesh, India, China, Laos and Thailand.[8] Finally, in the final months of 2024 there has been renewed violence against the Rohingya people of Rakhine State, who experienced an attempted genocide in the autumn of 2016. As this has reignited, tens of thousands of Rohingya have fled over the border to Bangladesh to join up to a million other Rohinyga that have been living in refugee camps there since the mid-2010s.[9]
Demographic impact of the Myanmar Civil WarDemographic impact of the Myanmar Civil War
The demographic impact of the civil war has been felt primarily in terms of the death toll. There are no accurate figures for this, especially so given the chaotic nature of the regional conflicts. Nevertheless, it is assumed that around 70,000 to 75,000 people had been killed by the end of 2024. Of these, more than 5,000 were civilians. The conflict has also led to certain parts of the country where there is intense military activity being denuded of any civilian population as people have fled. Tens of thousands of people have managed to make it over the borders to Bangladesh, India, China, Laos or Thailand. However, this is dwarfed by internal displacement.[10]
See alsoSee also
Explore more about the Myanmar Civil WarExplore more about the Myanmar Civil War
- Civil War in Myanmar at the Council on Foreign Relations
- Myanmar's civil war has killed thousands — yet it feels like a forgotten crisis at National Public Radio
- How Myanmar's Civil War Could Actually End at Time Magazine
- Could the Myanmar Junta Rapidly Collapse Like al-Assad? at the Council on Foreign Relations
References
- ↑ https://time.com/7160736/myanmar-coup-civil-war-conflict-timeline-endgame-explainer/
- ↑ https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/312-identity-crisis-ethnicity-and-conflict-myanmar
- ↑ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12992883
- ↑ https://time.com/5360637/myanmar-8888-uprising-30-anniversary-democracy/
- ↑ https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/08/24/myanmar-no-justice-no-freedom-rohingya-5-years
- ↑ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/19/myanmar-coup-2021-explained-in-30-seconds
- ↑ https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/rohingya-crisis-myanmar
- ↑ https://news.un.org/en/audio/2024/09/1154446
- ↑ https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/famine-data-myanmar/
- ↑ https://www.npr.org/2025/01/03/nx-s1-5244865/myanmars-civil-war-has-killed-thousands-yet-it-feels-like-a-forgotten-crisis